Geopolitical Tensions in the South China Sea: What’s Next?

Geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea are increasing along with tensions between various countries claiming rights to the region. This area is very strategic because it has crucial shipping lanes and abundant natural resource potential, including oil and gas. China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam are some of the countries that have claims to this region, which has led to prolonged conflict. China claims almost the entire South China Sea through the nine-dash line map, which creates tensions with neighboring countries and defies international law, such as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). On the other hand, the Philippines and Vietnam claim the same territory, which is rooted in each country’s history and national identity. In recent years, China has carried out military infrastructure construction on the islands it controls, such as Mischief Reef and Fiery Cross Reef. This resulted in an increased military presence, which created concerns among neighboring countries and allies such as the United States. The US is actively involved in confrontation through freedom of navigation operations to demonstrate its commitment to regional security. US involvement also caused a backlash from China, which increased tensions. Several countries, including Australia and Japan, are strengthening alliances with countries in Southeast Asia, seeking maritime stability and security. This shift shows that geopolitics in the South China Sea is not just a regional conflict, but also a struggle for global influence. Meanwhile, ASEAN as a regional organization is trying to find a peaceful solution to resolve the dispute. However, differences in interests among its members often hinder collective action, especially in responding to Chinese aggression. Multilateral diplomacy is very important in efforts to maintain stability, but its success remains in doubt. Apart from issues of militarization and diplomacy, economic aspects are also an important concern. Countries with claims in the South China Sea are trying to explore potential energy resources and marine products. Tensions related to this exploration often lead to clashes between each country’s coast guard ships. From a cyber security perspective, the conflict in the South China Sea also involves information warfare. Propaganda and disinformation are used by various parties to strengthen claims and create narratives that support their positions internationally. This shows that communication campaigns are also a weapon in modern geopolitics. In this context, the geopolitical future of the South China Sea is very uncertain. The involvement of big powers such as the US, Russia and India in this issue increasingly influences power dynamics. Global uncertainty and the COVID-19 pandemic may also influence countries’ priorities in resolving these tensions. But one thing is certain, international attention to this region will remain high. The international community must continue to encourage dialogue and peaceful resolution so that existing tensions do not lead to armed conflict. Collaborative efforts to maintain freedom of navigation and maritime stability as well as the need for compliance with international law are crucial steps to maintain peace in the South China Sea. Complex geopolitical entanglements will continue to shape the future of the region and are a major concern for countries in Asia and the world. Any actions taken by the parties involved in this conflict will have the potential to affect stability throughout Southeast Asia and beyond.